Results from seven key breeding states for insights into duck and goose populations and what could be ahead for the fall flight
By Mallori Murphey
Ducks.org
Around this time of year, hunters start to wonder: What will this year’s fall flight look like?
We will get the clearest picture in September, when the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) releases its annual Waterfowl Population Status Report. This eagerly awaited report summarizes results from a host of population surveys and analyses, including the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS), better known as the “May Survey.” Regarded as the gold standard, this survey provides breeding population estimates and habitat assessments for nearly all North American waterfowl.
In the meantime, several US states carry out their own breeding population surveys each year. Though they tend to fly under the radar, these efforts are essential to state and federal waterfowl management. Much of this data feeds directly into the USFWS’s Adaptive Harvest Management process, which determines duck season frameworks for hunters in America. Furthermore, these counts remind us that homegrown ducks are often the first in waterfowlers’ bags before northern migrants arrive.
What follows is a survey of the 2025 state surveys—their numbers, habitat conditions, and an early window into the autumn passage.
California
When water returns, ducks rebound—and California’s 2025 results reflected that, especially in the northern part of the state. Breeding duck numbers rose 27 percent from last year to 474,495, though totals remain below the long-term average (LTA).
Mallards climbed to 265,640, up 49 percent from 2024. While still 16 percent under the LTA (1992–2024), this was the highest estimate since 2018. Gadwall also rallied sharply, more than doubling to 110,172, which stands 28 percent above the LTA.
Not all species shared in the gains. Cinnamon teal declined 21 percent and are 14 percent below the LTA, while northern shovelers dropped 26 percent from 2024 but are similar to their LTA.
In the Northeastern stratum, Canada geese surged 81 percent year over year and are now 43 percent above the LTA.
The winter of 2024 and spring of 2025 brought average precipitation across most of California. Snowfall was light from November through February, but spring storms in March and April helped make up the difference. By the end of June, the state sat at about 95 percent of normal. Northern California fared even better, with near- to above-average precipitation. Central California came in around average, but Southern California stayed on the dry side. In the Sacramento Valley, full water allocations for wetlands and rice fields should have given waterfowl a solid boost for the 2025 breeding season.
Oregon
Oregon’s total duck estimate was 267,222, down nearly 12 percent from last year but similar to the LTA. By strata, totals were on par with the LTA in the Willamette Valley, nearly 7 percent above in the Southeast, and below the LTA in the Northeast by 5 percent and the Lower Columbia River by 24 percent.
Excellent habitat conditions during 2024 contributed to improved production and higher breeding populations in 2025 for some species. The most common breeding duck in the state, the mallard, increased nearly 12 percent to 79,525, while cinnamon teal rose 38 percent to 22,764. Despite these increases, both species remain below their LTA owing to lingering effects of drought in prior years. Gadwall declined 10 percent to 58,508 but remains 10 percent above the LTA. Canada geese held steady at 35,922, up almost 8 percent from last year but 20 percent under the LTA.
Washington
Washington’s 2025 survey came in essentially unchanged from 2024, with a decline of less than 1 percent at 159,197 total ducks. Mallards were down 11 percent to 77,037. Gadwall fell sharply, down 31 percent to 14,404. American green-winged teal increased 61 percent to 13,640, while estimates of breeding cinnamon teal more than doubled to 5,087. Wood ducks were up 8 percent to 6,536, but northern shovelers dropped 30 percent to 6,650.
Among diving ducks, redheads held steady with 7,890. Canada geese also posted gains, climbing almost 13 percent to 39,874.
Habitat conditions in 2025 were noticeably wetter overall than last spring, which bodes well for locally breeding waterfowl. However, parts of the western survey area experienced moderate drought in early May, while most of eastern Washington reported average water conditions.
Explore the results from other states at Ducks.org (2025 State Waterfowl Surveys Overview).
2025 KEY HIGHLIGHTS
PACIFIC FLYWAY
California
Total breeding duck population up 27%
Oregon
Total breeding duck population down 12%
Washington
Total breeding duck population down 1%